Hi everyone,

I was reminded the other day about a big storm in 1953 – personally, I was far too young to remember it at the time, of course, but I grew up hearing stories about the catastrophe.

‘The 1953 North Sea flood was a major flood caused by a heavy storm surge that struck the Netherlands, north-west Belgium, England and Scotland.  Most sea defences facing the surge were overwhelmed, resulting in extensive flooding.

The storm and flooding occurred at the end of Saturday, 31 January 1953 and in the morning of the next day. A combination of a high spring tide, and a severe European windstorm, caused a storm tide in the North Sea.  The combination of wind, high tide, and low pressure caused the sea to flood land up to 5.6 metres (18 ft 4 in) above mean sea level.’

Storm tides of the North Sea are coastal floods associated with extratropical cyclones crossing over the North Sea, the severity of which are affected by the shallowness of the sea and the orientation of the shoreline relative to the storm’s path, as well as the timing of tides.  

Storm tides are a regular occurrence in the North Sea basin, with several forming each year. Although most do not cause significant damage, the impact of some has been devastating.’

In the 1953 storm, in the Netherlands over 2,500 people died, 9% of total Dutch farmland flooded, 187,000 animals drowned, and nearly 50,000 buildings were damaged, including 10,000 which were totally destroyed.

The Dutch are people I admire.  They are warm, friendly people. My husband’s uncle after World War 11, married a Dutch lady he’d met during the liberation of Utrecht – so I also feel a family bond, as we have cousins with Dutch and British nationalities. We’ve also spent lots of time in Holland, mainly because of our interest in sailing – and the South-East coast up to the Netherlands was a regular sailing area for us in the past.  We moored our boat in an area of Holland called the Veeres Meer for over eight years at one time – driving across, the north of France and Belgium to get to where our boat was moored and enjoyed many holidays in the Netherlands. We became regular visitors to the Rotary Club in the village where we kept our boat.  So, our ties are quite strong with Dutch people.  

I would often notice the new dams that were being erected after the 1953 disaster, dams which kept the North Sea at bay, and which often meant creating high-walled structures around the North Sea coast often leaving the small villages in the Zeeland area below the level of the water.

In today’s news, a large storm surge which created such death and destruction would no doubt be reported as more evidence for climate change, but in 1953, no-one was talking about climate change. 

Would we be correct in calling the 1953 storm in the North Sea part of climate change observations?  Well, the answer is a definite yes. One of the main elements in the formation of these storms is the ‘European windstorm’ element (remember spring tides, and shallowness also added to the formation of the disaster in 1953).  The 1953 storm was very much part of the collection of European ‘cyclones’ which we experience at different latitudes across Europe, although they don’t always enter the North Sea area.  

European windstorms are powerful extratropical cyclones which form as cyclonic windstorms, associated with areas of low atmospheric pressure.   They can occur throughout the year, but are most frequent between October and March, with peak intensity in the winter months. Deep areas of low pressure are common over the North Atlantic, and occasionally start as nor’easters off the New England coast in the USA. They frequently track across the North Atlantic Ocean towards the north of Scotland and into the Norwegian Sea which is situated north of the North Sea.   If the track is further south, it may cause adverse weather conditions across Europe with the countries most commonly affected being Ireland, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.  

The strong wind phenomena intrinsic to European windstorms, can give rise to “damage footprints” at the surface, and be placed into three categories, namely the “warm jet”, the “cold jet” and the “sting jet”. These phenomena vary in terms of physical mechanisms, atmospheric structure, spatial extent, duration, severity level, predictability and location relative to cyclone and fronts.

On average, these storms cause economic damage of around €1.9 billion per year and insurance losses of €1.4 billion per year (old 1990–1998 figures). They cause the highest amount of natural catastrophe insurance loss in Europe.

Depending on the southerly route of the storms, the winds can be of very high strength as you leave the UK from the English Channel heading to the west to cross the Atlantic.  One of my most recent storm experiences was in 2022, when I crossed the Atlantic, heading for New York, in February.  Coming towards us at full force was Storm Eunice, quickly followed by Storm Franklin and I also encountered a third storm (that was not given a name, as it turned left as it headed towards the UK and ended up in Iceland.)   Three storms in four days was definitely an increase in the occurrence of such storms for last winter … so yes, climate change IS showing up in the cross-Atlantic storms heading for Europe, as they are increasing in occurrence and in intensity and it could only be a matter of time before one of these storms enters the top of the North Sea at the precise moment of a spring tide when the low pressure and shallow seas could generate another 1953- type tragedy.  But now the Dutch are ready for it.

Why am I chatting this month about a storm which happened so long ago?   Well, I want you to think about rising sea levels.   The news about rising sea levels has been around for a while.   The scientific data tells us that ice at the poles on Earth are melting. 

The amount of ice floating in the Arctic is reducing every winter – but don’t worry too much about the Arctic Ice melt as this will not actually be effecting the sea level rise too much, because the arctic ice is floating on water and whether the water is contained in the Arctic as ice or water does not change the actual amount of water very much, certainly not enough to worry everyone about worldwide sea level rise.  

The ice which exists on the continental land of Greenland, and the ice which is found on the continent of the Antarctic is a different matter, however.  In these two areas of polar ice – the ice itself is not floating on the water, as it covers the land.  When icebergs break off from either Greenland or the Antarctic the news is not good.  This type of ice adds to the water levels because it has been on land, not water, so when it starts to leave the land and float on water, it is adding to the water level and causing sea level rise. Every time large icebergs calve from a continent, the water levels around the Earth begin to rise.   The estimates are that we have already lost so much ice, we have gone beyond the feedback mechanism, so the point of no return has passed – with no way humans can affect the future loss of ice, and there will be immense sea level rises to be expected in the future. 

There have been ideas from scientists that we could put umbrella arrangements up in space to shade the ice at the poles to stop the rest of the ice melting – but it is far too late for this.  The ice is definitely going to disappear completely.    So, if we can’t stop the ice from melting and can’t stop the planet’s sea level from rising –  what can humans do?

Firstly, we need to slow down the heating up of the Earth’s atmosphere.  We need to keep the atmospheric temperature lower than is predicted.  All the talk about stopping the use of fossil fuels, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere and all the information about carbon zero mean we really should be taking notice of it all, and doing our best to achieve it.  But we need to consider more than this.  We need to think about the defence of the coastal areas of the world.  The estimates of the loss of life, homes and businesses from around the coastlines of the world because of the expected sea level rise are high (and there has been good scientific data.) Most countries in the world need to start planning how they are going to defend their land and populations. 

This is the connection I am making, folks.  Take a look at what has happened in the Netherlands. Let’s learn from their research and building of the most amazing flood protection systems, such as dikes, storm barriers, pumps and other adaptations.  They are world leaders in engineering which protect against the problems of flooding and sea level rise. They are not only saving their land from rising sea levels, but they also build on water to increase the amount of land available to the population.   

It would be silly for other countries in the world not to ask for help from the Dutch people when planning their defences against sea level rise.  Look at a world map – see how many capital cities are sited on the coasts, all built from the historical development of capital cities growing where transport links, especially shipping has been located.   Around the world, you can see where the sea level problems are going to be but we can only imagine what large-scale migration and loss of life will look like.  But we don’t have to walk into this scenario with our eyes closed.  If we do nothing about fossil fuels and ignore the need for carbon zero then climate change is going to get worse and sea level rise will be unstoppable.  Let’s get ahead of the game.   

The loss of sea ice is not the only problem once the ice has melted.    When the ice disappears, the Arctic tundra will be exposed.   As the tundra warms, methane which has been stored in the tundra for millions of years will be released.   Methane will have a worse effect on climate change than carbon dioxide, so climate change will then happen even more quickly.   Again, this is another example of going past the point of no return, as far as feedback mechanisms are concerned.  Once the methane is released humans will have no control over gases in the atmosphere and the damage done by both carbon dioxide and methane will be unstoppable.  

Every country worldwide needs to look at the effects of sea-level rising – and begin to do something about it.  Protection is essential if large cities around the world are not to be decimated.

Let’s start to get involved with plans NOW.  Let’s get building our sea defences. Let’s live in our cities in the future with the land behind the sea level barriers being lower than the sea on the outside of the barriers. If we don’t start soon, it will be chaos.   We can’t all move away and live on a hillside or up a mountain.

Yes please, kind Dutch people – can we have all the help you can give us to build a smarter society for humans in the future.  We’d like to know all about your smart technology and engineering designs and start investing, not only our countries in Europe, but also to help those people in the highly affected areas around the world, where rising sea levels have already taken effect on their way of life.     

Let’s start now …  let’s get investing, and building.

See you next month !

Gloria

PS – As I’ve been writing this blog, I’ve been situated in Majorca – taking a break to enjoy some winter sun and for me to concentrate on writing a new Lucy book.  However, our trip has not gone to plan – as we have, for the past two days, been experiencing Storm Florence – a European windstorm with very high rainfall and winds, which planted itself over the Balearic Islands. Surely I didn’t need to experience this, to be able to write about storms.

(Remember – a blog is just the opinion of one person.  All views expressed in this blog are those of the author).